While Senator
Barack Obama was on his controversial trip to the Middle East and Europe, a panel discussion attended by distinguished experts on Iraq was held at the American Enterprise Institute on July 24 (
The 2008 Iraq Debate: An Assessment from the Ground). Particularly, General Jack Keane and Frederick
Kagan are very familiar to frequent visitor to Global American Discourse. They drafted the surge plan, and even a vocal critic to the Iraq War like
Barack Obama admits its success. His presidential race rival, Senator John McCain points this out frequently.
Therefore, I would like to review this event. The panel was moderated by Danielle
Pletka, President of the
AEI, and three panelists presented their analysis from their own expertise. I recommend watching the event video on this site, not because of their distinguished reputation, but their clear and logical counterarguments to irresponsible remarks by
Barack Obama and other war critics. The three panelists visited Iraq, and travelled around the country. They met US officials from Ambassador Ryan
Crocker, General David
Petraeus, to local commanders. Also, they talked with Iraqi leaders with regard to the future of Iraq and US role in this region.
Actually, Senator John McCain criticized Senator
Obama that he listen to General
Petraeus and local commanders when
Obama carelessly mentioned early withdrawal from Iraq. This panel is important to understand how successful US operations since the surge is and how poorly founded
Barack Obama’s terror strategy is.
First, Retired General Jack Keane of the US Army has made it clear that US-led coalition was winning in Iraq, and achieving war objectives. The United States intends to establish a democratic and independent Iraq, no threat to its neighbors and a long term partner for American security. Most importantly, Kean stressed the vital goal of not to make Iraq a terrorist heaven.
General Keane said there were no longer civil wars in Iraq. The number of casualties among Iraqi civilians and US soldiers has declined. Sporadic attacks may persist, but terrorists in Iraq no longer sustain the level of violence to threaten the regime.
Quite importantly, General Keane points out expansion of mutual cooperation between US forces and Iraqi citizens, because people are fed up with violence by insurgents. Sunnis are fighting against Al
Qaeda, and Shiites are expelling Iranian influence. Also, the Iraqi Security Forces have been improved qualitatively and quantitatively, and they are evolving from internal defense forces to external defense forces. This is a vital point to talk about the future of US-Iraqi relations.
Finally, Jack Keane explained why the surge has made success. Prior to the surge, the Bush administration focused on training of Iraqi forces, but they were not ready to defeat insurgents. Therefore, the Unites States decided to send additional counter offensive troops, and changed leadership structure under General David
Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan
Crocker.
After General Keane outlined strategic success in Iraq, Kimberly
Kagan, President of the Institute for the Study of War, presented her analysis on the progress of political process there. As Keane mentioned in this lecture, former ethnic and sectarian insurgents are turning toward political participation, in order to appeal their interests. Kimberly
Kagan criticizes a widespread understanding that the surge has defeated insurgents, but it has not brought political progress. Contrary to such viewpoints, she argues that the surge has led to political progress.
Although Prime Minister
Nouri al-
Maliki desired to execute leadership in a British styled parliamentary cabinet system, continual violence deterred constitutional political process. Since the surge, influence of
Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shiite radical leader, has diminished. Also, Al
Qaeda can no longer afford to threaten the Iraqi government and obstruct political process.
Kimberly
Kagan summarizes the above mentioned success and stresses positive impacts of the surge. As a result, legislative procedures moved forward. Currently, Iraqis are making their country into a real parliamentary democracy, based on diversified interests and ideologies. Despite some progress, the upcoming provincial election may provoke political competition among
ethno-sectarian groups, which may develop into conflicts as parliamentary democracy is not firmly rooted yet. Therefore, Kimberly
Kagan insists on maintaining current level of US troops in Iraq.
Finally, Frederick
Kagan commented US operation in Iraq in the context of global security and the War on Terror. He points out that the Iraq debates often dismiss regional and global context of this war. Frederick
Kagan stressed that the purpose of the Iraq War is not just creating an isolated show case of democracy in the Middle East, but advancing American interests there.
It is critically important that Frederick
Kagan articulated American interests of this war, because the media and the public often forget this vital premise, and easily fall into emotional pacifism that the United States stop this “immoral” (of course, this is their view.) war. In reply to widespread criticism among liberals that fighting in Iraq was a distraction of the War on Terror, he compared the current war with Franklin Roosevelt’s decision on World War Ⅱ, attack Nazi Germany first despite the Pear Harbor. Frederick
Kagan asserts that Senator John McCain is right to argue that US forces stay in Iraq, and
Obama is wrong to say that American troops withdraw from Iraq and focus on Afghanistan.
In a big picture of regional strategy,
Kagan insists on making Iraq a bulwark against Iranian expansionism. He lists up Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism to Hezbollah in Lebanon,
Hamas in Palestine, Syria, Shiite militias in Iraq, and Taliban in Afghanistan. Regarding current nuclear negotiation with Iran, Frederick
Kagan says it is extremely dangerous to start talking while surrendering at first. Without US forces, Iran faces no hurdles to increase its influence in Iraq, which will simply strengthen Iran’s position in the nuclear negotiation.
Frederick
Kagan added that both Iraqi Prime Minister
Nouri al-
Maliki and National Security Advisor
Mowaffaq al-
Rubaie are exploring strategic agreements with the United States, while US Democrats oppose the deal. He criticizes Democrats short-sighted behavior as Iraq sits at the heart of the Middle East
geo-strategically, and
Osama bin Laden and
Ayman al-
Zawahiri regard Iraq a primary
frontline against the West.
Judging from history, I think Frederick
Kagan mentions the right point, because this
geo-strategic consideration is the vital reason why the Abbasid dynasty of the Islamic Empire moved its capital from Damascus to Baghdad in the 8
th century.
The media misreported that
Maliki agreed with
Obama. Frederick
Kagan point out that neither
Maliki nor
Rubaie agreed with
Barack Obama to set a fixed timetable for US withdrawal. This is an essential point to discuss the future of Iraq.
I strongly recommend watching this event video, because the three experts tell lucidly how broadly believed understandings on Iraq are poorly founded. The United States is winning, and further strategic cooperation with new Iraq is making progress.