Britain and Japan as America's ally: Review of Woodrow Wilson Event

US President George W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi met in Kyoto on November 16. They reconfirmed closer ties between the United States and Japan. However, I do not regard Koizumi a reliable strategic partner to the United States, because he still maintains “no pains, no gains” attitude just as all postwar Japanese prime ministers did. He always says that Japanese is willing to make contribution to US endeavor within its own limits. This is not so much different from old and pacifist Japan. In order to understand it well, I would like to write a review of Woodrow Wilson Center’s event on Britain’s role between America and Europe. I believe Japan can learn a lot from the Anglo-American special relationship.

When I visited Washington DC, I attended this event on November 7. Unlike the Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference, this was small. About 20 people attended this meeting. Some are Woodrow Wilson Center staff, and some are students probably. One attendant was a professor of European history at the George Washington University.

The guest speaker was Professor Alex Danchev of Nottingham University in the United Kingdom. Basically, he presented critical viewpoints to Tony Blair’s foreign policy. According to Professor Danchev, Blair has committed too much to the US power diplomacy. Also, he pointed out that since the German problem had been resolved at the end of the Cold War, the nature of the Anglo-American alliance would change.

Despite his criticism to Tony Blair, he told vital points on the Anglo-American special relationship. The special relationship is the key to British foreign policy, regardless of ideological background of American side. The following objectives satisfy Britain’s vital national interest.

(1) Be distinguished from other nations
The special relationship will make Britain a distinguished ally to the United States. As people often say, Britain plays a role of Greece to America’s Rome.

(2) Make use of US power
With close ties with America, Britain can strengthen its position in Europe and the globe.

(3) Influence on US policy
As an Athenian to America’s Rome, Britain should be a consultant for the United States to manage the world.

(4) Interpret between Europe and America
Britain should be a representative of Europe to the United States. Also, Britain should bridge policy gaps between Europe and America.

Therefore, British policymakers have been keeping close ties with the United States. As the Cold War is over, Professor Danchev showed skeptic viewpoints to this strategy. However, I was impressed to hear questions from American attendants to Professor Danchev. They said that Tony Blair was very popular in the United States among both liberals and conservatives. Liberals appreciate New Labour economic policies, and conservatives regard him as the most reliable ally to the United States. In addition, they pointed out that Blair was an icon of liberal democracy and market economy in New Europe.

Certainly, Britain is a distinguished ally to the United States, particularly for grassroots Americans. I see many American blogs with the Stars and Stripes and the Union Jack. Also, I found an interesting website, called “Thank you Tony.com.” This is an American site to send a letter to Tony Blair to thank his cooperation to the United States in the Iraq War. I have sent a letter to thank Tony Blair through this site for three times. Right or wrong, Britain is an unparalleled ally to the United States. This is a special advantage for the United Kingdom.

Come to think of it, does Koizumi have clear objectives to strengthen the US-Japanese relations as I mentioned above? As far as I know, none of Japanese prime ministers, foreign ministers, and foreign policy bureaucrats have those steadfast objectives in their mind. No wonder I do not find “Thank you Jun.com” at all.

Carnegie Conference: Appearance in NPR Talk of the Nation

I came home, and I can write my blog posts again. As I said in the last post, I attended the Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference at the International Trade Center, or Ronald Reagan Building in Washington DC on November 7 and 8. This conference is held every 18 months, and the largest event by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As I mentioned last time, leading policymakers were invited to give lectures on non-proliferation. Audiences invited to this conference were top experts from the government, the media, Washington think tanks, embassies, and NGOs from all over the world. At the panel discussion on various topics, guest speakers and attendants discussed very seriously as experts on nuclear proliferation. In other words, both of them talk with mutual respect to their knowledge. It was terrific.

The first speaker was Mohamed El Baradei, Director General of IAEA, and winner of Nobel peace prize this year. I was impressed with his pragmatist approach to nuclear non-proliferation. He said he did not stick to NPT as long as his effort to stop nuclear proliferation was satisfied. Since the Iraq War, I had an impression that he was at odds with the Bush administration. However, he praised the Bush approach to India practical. He is not always against Bush, and I am impressed with his pragmatism.

Another big guest was Samuel Bodman, Secretary of Energy in current Bush administration. His prime focus was on US-Russian non-proliferation cooperation. In particular, he mentioned about shipping highly enriched uranium and plutonium from former Soviet countries to Russia, and converting weapons grade nuclear fuel to civilian use. He stressed how successful US-Russian cooperation is in this area. Currently, the relationship between the United States and Russia is not necessarily friendly. Despite that, both nuclear powers pursue common agenda for non-proliferation. Those who criticize Bush foreign policy unilateralist should reconsider their viewpoints.

Most surprisingly, I appeared in NPR Talk of the Nation. It was a live talk show on November 8, and Neal Conan chaired panel discussion on nuclear arsenals between guest speakers and listeners. Also, experts at the conference asked questions to guest speakers. NPR staff requested us to clap in order to create enthusiastic atmosphere. In addition, they requested us to ask easy questions, and not to ask something of expert, so that listeners can understand well. NPR delivered a piece of paper to write down a question and name on it. Then, the audience submits the question to NPR staff for selection. Those who passed this selection could ask a question to the guest.

Fortunately, my question on nuclear history was taken up by the staff, and I went up to the microphone. I asked them “Why didn’t the US use nuclear bombs in the Korean War and the Vietnam War?” As to Korea, retired General Eugene Habiger replied that it was questionable whether nuclear bomb was effective against North Korea. As to Vietnam, former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara of the Kennedy administration said that the United States worried Chinese intervention if nuclear bomb was used against North Vietnam. Also, the US wanted to avoid the reputation of genocide, he said.

I would like to mention more about the Carnegie and Woodrow Wilson events in my later posts.

Coming to Washington DC

I decided to attend international conferences held in Washington DC on November 7 and 8. One is a big event by the Nonproliferation Project of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Influential policymakers on WMD proliferation are invited as guest speakers. Nonproliferation project is the centerpiece of the Carnegie Endowment, and this is far larger than any other events held by the Endowment.

Main guest speakers are the following.

Mohamed El Baradei, Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency
Samuel W. Bodman, US Secretary of Energy
William J. Perry, Former US Secretary of Defense
Sam Nunn, Former US Senator (Democrat)
Richard Lugar, US Senator (Republican), Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee

Guest speakers come from both current Bush administration and former Clinton administration. Bipartisan debates will be a good opportunity to understand on US nuclear policy further. Also, there are some foreign guests, including EU Commissioner Javier Solana’s personal WMD Representative and Egyptian Ambassador to the United States. Attendants are from Washington think tanks, the media, and the government, mostly. Students and NGO activists will participate in this conference as well.

The most critical topic will be Iran and North Korea.

Currently, WMD nonproliferation is one of the key areas in US foreign policy. I have posted some articles on nuclear weapons on this blog. Therefore, I will write about this conference when I come back to Tokyo. If possible, I would like to post an article from the hotel, using a computer in the common room. Just if possible.

I will attend another conference at the Woodrow Wilson Center Professor Alex Danchev from Nottingham University in the United Kingdom will give a lecture on Britain’s role between America and Europe. The Woodrow Wilson Center was founded in 1968 with approval by the Congress. It is quite close to the White House. The Anglo-American Special Relationship and the Transatlantic Alliance is a key topic on this blog. I hope I can write a good post about it as well.

US Pressure on the Indo-Iranian Pipeline

In the previous post, “India, the country you should not miss!”, I have mentioned about the Indo-Iranian gas pipeline and the US-India strategic partnership. President Bush admitted India’s nuclear power status when he talked with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Washington DC this July. At the United Nations summit this September, Bush and Singh talked about the Iran problem. The United States pressured on India to scrap the Indo-Iranian gas pipeline in order to stop nuclear proliferation to Iran. India is in the middle between the United States and Iran, and the United States is testing India whether it chooses the West over Iran in the end (“Iran Issue Strains India’s Tie to US”, September 14, International Herald Tribune / New York Times).

As I mentioned before, India has to establish close relationship with the United States because it is exploring a global power status. Also, in the war on terror, India faces common threats with America, which are radical Muslims. On the other hand, Iran is an important partner to India. With growing population and economy, India’s demand for energy is soaring. The Indo-Iranian pipeline is a national project to satisfy this soaring demand for the future. In addition, India regards Iran a gateway for Afghanistan and Central Asia. India has been stepping up military cooperation with Iran to use this country an entry point to this region. Furthermore, India has the second largest Shiite population in the world. It makes no sense for India to confront Iran.

According to US National Intelligence Estimate in January 2005, Iran needs 10 years to develop nuclear bombs. However, Gary Schmitt, Executive Director at the Project for the New American Century, a leading neo-conservative think tank, insists that the United States and its allies keep alert on Iran. He says that Iran has not throw away its nuclear ambition. Also, it is quite difficult to have accurate information about Iran’s nuclear program. The Jerusalem Post estimates quotes Israeli intelligence source, saying that Iran will have a nuclear bomb by 2012 and could have the capability as early as 2008. Finally, he argues that it is important to remember why the Bush administration adopted military preemption in its strategic doctrine. No one can foresee the timing of attacks on the America and its allies by states or terrorist groups. As to Iran, people understand too little about the nature of regime and its strategic intention. This makes it furthermore difficult to predict Iran’s behavior. Therefore, the global community must be highly alert on Iran, and careful enough not to provide financial sources for a dangerous project.

To deal with Iran, the United States and EU3 (Britain, France, and Germany) need to demand Russia, China, and India to get involved with non-proliferation efforts. As a neighbor to Iran, India would play an important role. Currently, thanks to high oil price, Iran is in a good position to finance the nuclear program and sponsor terrorism. The Indo-Iranian pipeline will be a further help for this regime.

At the US-India summit this July, the United States agreed to help India’s peaceful use of nuclear energy. At present, nuclear power accounts for only 2.7% of total energy production in India. Further US assistance would be a good alternative to the gas pipeline. Though India has not given up the pipeline plan, Singh decided to vote against Iran at the UN summit this September. This was a critical test for the United States to judge India, whether it is a trustworthy partner or not. The problem is India’s national pride. Leading Indian papers, such as the Hindu and the Times of India laments this vote, because India had been the champion of nonalignment since its independence from Britain. India has made it clear that it would take sides with America and EU3, rather than Russia and China.

This is a vital message for other countries engaged in an energy resource project with Iran. Currently, Japan has a joint oil venture at Azagaden in western Iran. I am afraid this will be the third error for Japan in the conflict between Iran and the West. The first error was in 1952 when Mohammad Mossadegh nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Japan bought oil from this radical leftist regime, which irked Britain and America. Fortunately, Mossadegh was thrown away, and the shah came back. The second error was that Japan continued the Mitsui Oil Project when the United States and Iran confronted over US embassy hostages in Tehran. Will it be the third error in the coming conflict between Iran and the West? That’s a real struck out!

Article Published

Last Friday, my article was published in Metropolis magazine. This is a free magazine, and widely distributed in English speaking communities in Japan. You can find some copies at the hotel, embassy, foreign bookshop, and record shop in Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Nagoya, Kyoto, and Kobe.

The article is based on my post, “A Review of VJ Day: Has Japan Really Been Born Again?”.

Please see the following link.
http://metropolis.japantoday.com/tokyo/602/lastword.asp


You can see other interesting articles by foreign writers in Japan when you see this site.

I have written the following articles before.
http://metropolis.japantoday.com/tokyo/583/lastword.asp
http://metropolis.japantoday.com/tokyo/565/lastword.asp


Metropolis will be a very helpful source of daily life information in Tokyo. When you visit there, I recommend you to take a copy at the hotel.

Britain Needs to Replace Trident Nuclear Missiles?

The future of nuclear deterrence was an important issue in the last general election. At present, Britain deploys US-made Trident missiles as strategic weapons. Current missile system must be replaced in2024, because the Vanguard class strategic missile submarines will be decommissioned. Therefore, a nation-wide debate is on going, regarding future nuclear possession. Prime minister Tony Blair made it clear that Britain will maintain nuclear deterrence for big league status in the world. The Conservative party welcomed his decision. Now, British leaders will discuss options of future nuclear arsenals. Britain will be firmly committed to global nuclear deterrence, and the cost and performance of deploying the next generation nuclear weapons will be vital. Meanwhile, leftist politicians insist that Britain should abolish all nuclear weapons in order to adapt to the post-Cold War international politics.

Before talking of these debates, let me explain briefly about the history of British nuclear weapons. Britain developed its own atomic and hydrogen bombs in1952 and 1957. Since then, Britain possessed two categories of nuclear systems: strategic bombers and SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile). While the United Kingdom has developed V-bombers --Valiant, Victor and Vulcan-- by itself, it has been using US-made SLBMs as a principal nuclear deterrence.

Britain tried to make independent SLBM by itself, but it was not successful. Therefore, Harold Macmillan talked with John F. Kennedy, and decided to import US-made Polaris missile under the Nassau agreement in 1962. Since then, Britain’s strategic weapons have become closely related to those with the United States. When Britain needed to upgrade its SLBMs, Margaret Thatcher decided to replace Polaris with another US-made missile, Trident. At the end of the Cold War, the United Kingdom abolished strategic bombers, and concentrates all the strategic arsenals on US-made SLBMs. As a result, the future of British nuclear weapon is tied with the United States.

In order to upgrade current nuclear system, Britain has the following options.
1. Life Extensive Program of Trident missile system
In this case, it is necessary to build new Trident launching or multi-role hunter-killer submarines. Also, Trident missile itself could be updated from current version of D5 to D5A. This missile update depends on whether the United States will do or not. In any case, tremendous cost is expected.

2. Cruise missile
In this case, multi-role hunter-killer submarines will be used. In the Iraq War, Britain fired US-made Tomahawk missiles from hunter-killer submarines. Cruise missiles fly a shorter range than ballistic missiles.

3. Air-based missile
This is what the RAF (Royal Air Force) insists. However, land-based strategic forces are vulnerable to attack by the enemy. This is the most unlikely option.

In any case, Britain will retain nuclear deterrence, because the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats support it as well. At present, it is quite likely that Britain will renew current Trident missile system.

However, Labour left-wingers argue that Trident is a Cold War deterrence, and useless against present threats, like dirty bomb attacks by terrorists and nuclear proliferations, particularly by Iran and North Korea. Robin Cook, who resigned Foreign Secretary when the Iraq War broke out, insists that Britain should end futile and costly obsession with nuclear weapons. Instead, he argues that Britain should assume leadership in global arms reduction by unilateral nuclear disarmament. Clare Short, a radical left who also resigned the cabinet minister when the Iraq War began, says, “It's just a symbol saying that Britain is in the big league, but if you need nuclear weapons to be in the big league, it's no wonder India and others want them.”

Britain’s choice on the Trident issue will have a significant effect on WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) and terrorism problems. Both of them are the most critical to the global security today. I do not believe Britain will disarm it nuclear weapons unilaterally. In order to deal with current threats in a cost-effective way, Britain may choose cruise missile, because some US Trident submarines carries Tomahawk missile instead. The key to this debate is Britain’s role in the global war on terror and nuclear non-proliferation.

The EU-Russia Industrialists’ Round Table

On October 3, the EU-Russia Industrialists’ Round Table will be held, in parallel with the EU-Russia Summit in London. What is the EU-Russia Industrialists’ Round Table?

The Industrialists’ Round Table (IRT) was founded at the EU-Russia Summit in July 1997. IRT gives advise on business and investment in Russia to the EU Commission and the Russian government. Also, it helps EU-Russian business partnership.

I wrote a post, “Russian Democracy in Danger: Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief by Former Swedish Diplomat” before. In the policy brief, the author insisted that the West stand firmly against Putin’s authoritarianism, while promoting cooperation in the areas of common interests like non-proliferation and energy resource development. Fortunately, Russia needs nuclear reduction. Unlike Iran, it will not expand nuclear arsenals with oil revenue.

Therefore, close partnership between EU and Russian business will be a great help for US-led effort to democratize Russia. There are many areas for economic cooperation between the EU and Russia. Energy resources, like oil and natural gas, are the most important. Also, Russo-European cooperation in finance is the key to expand mutual trade and investment. Moreover, Russia’s high-tech and IT industries are on a high level. Aerospace and military technologies since the Soviet era are top class in the world. Russia has a great potential for the West, as a partner in energy supply, new market, high-tech, and IT fields.

This EU-Russia Industrialists’ Round Table is backed up by a private company, Eventica. This company has been organizing many conferences and opportunities to exchange mutual viewpoints between the EU and Russia. In addition, Eventica publishes periodicals to provide information for Western businessmen to support their business in Russia. A quarterly journal, called “Russian Investment Review” offers information about the Russian market and economy. An annual “Russian Index” introduces 50 key persons in Russian politics and business.

People focus on the meeting between Tony Blair, EU Chairman, and Vladimir Putin. However, cooperation between private sectors on both sides is important as well. In order to promote democracy in Russia, while pursuing mutual cooperation, private sectors should be more active.

Finally, Japan must keep up with the US and the EU to promote democracy and pursue cooperation. This will be helpful to stop the Russo Chinese alliance, and resolve the Russo-Japanese territorial dispute.