British Prime Minister Tony Blair articulated that the victory in Iraq and Afghanistan is vital to prevail democracy throughout the world, and defeat terrorism.
To begin with, let me review Prime Minister Blair’s speech at the Foreign Policy Centre, a New Labour think tank in London. In the speech, Tony Blair presents clear ideas why British and American endeavors in Iraq and Afghanistan are necessary for global democracy. This is a must read to understand the war on terror. (See the video.)
While the majority of Western Europe sees American policy since 9-11 has been a gross overreaction, Blair refutes it a benign inactivity, sitting in the commentator’s seat. Furthermore, the Prime Minister endorses the Anglo-American presence, because Iraq and Afghanistan are facing historical turning point in their struggles for democracy. Tony Blair argues against anti-interventionists as follows.
“The easiest line for any politician seeking office in the West today is to attack American policy. A couple of weeks ago as I was addressing young Slovak students, one got up, denouncing US/UK policy in Iraq, fully bought in to the demonisation of the US, utterly oblivious to the fact that without the US and the liberation of his country, he would have been unable to ask such a question, let alone get an answer to it.”
Moreover, the Prime Minister extends lucid arguments against those who doubt partnership between Al Qaeda and Iran or Iraqi Baathists.
“True the conventional view is that, for example, Iran is hostile to Al Qaida and therefore would never support its activities. But as we know from our own history of conflict, under the pressure of battle, alliances shift and change. Fundamentally, for this ideology, we are the enemy.”
Tony Blair goes on to say “‘We’ is not the West. … but those who believe in religious tolerance, openness to others, to democracy, liberty and human rights administered by secular courts.” Most importantly, the Prime Minister mentions as below.
“[Terrorits] know that if they can succeed either in Iraq or Afghanistan or indeed in Lebanon or anywhere else wanting to go the democratic route, then the choice of a modern democratic future for the Arab or Muslim world is dealt a potentially mortal blow. Likewise if they fail, and those countries become democracies and make progress and, in the case of Iraq, prosper rapidly as it would; then not merely is that a blow against their whole value system; but it is the most effective message possible against their wretched propaganda about America, the West, the rest of the world.”
On his visit to Australia, Prime Minister Blair delivered a similar speech at the Parliament. As Britain and Australia are close partners in Iraq, this address is a reminder to the global community that how important a staunch alliance against terrorists is. (See the video.)
The Prime Minister reiterated the case for British mission in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“To win, we have to win the battle of values, as much as arms. We have to show these are not western still less American or Anglo-Saxon values but values in the common ownership of humanity, universal values that should be the right of the global citizen.”
Tony Blair articulates why a strong alliance lead by the United States is a must for world peace and prosperity as below.
“The danger with America today is not that they are too much involved. The danger is they decide to pull up the drawbridge and disengage. We need them involved. We want them engaged. The reality is that none of the problems that press in on us, can be resolved or even contemplated without them. Our task is to ensure that with them, we do not limit the agenda to security. If our security lies in our values and our values are about justice and fairness as well as freedom from fear, then the agenda must be more than security and the alliance include more than America.”
Shortly after Prime Minister Blair’s tour to Australia, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made a surprise visit to Iraq on April 3. This shock and impress diplomacy is nothing new. President Bush did it twice, for Iraq and Afghanistan. At the press conference in Baghdad, both secretaries demonstrated their firm commitment to defeat insurgents and eliminate the roots of terrorism in order to bring real democracy in Iraq. Also, both British and American Secretaries said they were in full respect of Iraqi sovereignty and willing to encourage current process to establish new government.
For further understanding of the Blair cabinet’s foreign policy, I would recommend you to read an article, “Think Again” in Foreign Policy, May 2005. According to James G. Forsyth, assistant editor of this journal, Blair is not Bush’s poodle. Blair offers public loyalty in exchange for private influence, but this strategy also requires that he not boast about the achievements. Without Tony Blair’s initiative, George W. Bush would not have requested second resolution at the United Nations on Iraq. Also, without British influence, the United States would not have joined European effort to engage Iran.
In addition, Forsyth says Tony Blair is a neo-conservative in foreign policy. Prime Minister advocates the grand project of commitment to make the world more democratic, and does not hesitate to use force if necessary. Like neoconservatives, Blair believes that nothing happens without American leadership. The Prime Minister pleads with America to stay involved in the world every chance he gets, and not to fall into isolationism. In his 2003 address to a joint session of congress, Blair explained why America must act: “Because destiny put you in this place in history, in this moment in time and the task is yours to do.” Bush’s wordsmiths couldn’t have put it better.
Prime Minister Blair’s speech is an invaluable reminder for the global community. Success in Iraq and Afghanistan will advance democracy and stability throughout the world. It is not servile to be the closest strategic partner to the United States. Rather, keep America engaged with world affairs. A neocon America is much more desirable than an isolationist America.
No other allies are more important than Tony Blair. A slight outsider, the Prime Minister can add more legitimacy to US leadership in the world. None of Secretaries in the Bush administration, from Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, to Donald Rumsfeld have this advantage. There is every reason that the Anglo-American alliance has been the anchor of world peace and stability. My fellow citizens in Europe and Japan, you need to understand this!
Shah Alex
Thursday, April 20, 2006
Sunday, April 16, 2006
Test Your Knowledge on the EU
I found an interesting quiz on the website of British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Questions are very tough. How well can you do?
My score was 6 out of 10. Quite desperate. I thought I knew more about the European Union. Europe is expanding and evolving.
I hope this quiz will stimulate your further interest in European integration.
My score was 6 out of 10. Quite desperate. I thought I knew more about the European Union. Europe is expanding and evolving.
I hope this quiz will stimulate your further interest in European integration.
Wednesday, April 5, 2006
Kissinger talks on India
President Bush’s last visit to Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan is a landmark in US foreign policy. The Indo-American partnership has been strengthened. America demonstrated wholehearted commitment to Afghanistan. On the other hand, relative importance of Pakistan seems to be declining. Though one month has passed since then, India is an important issue in Washington.
In order to understand the overall view of this issue, let me refer to an article, “Anatomy of Partnership” in the International Herald Tribune by Henry Kissinger. In the article, he welcomes new partnership with this powerful English-speaking democracy and the United States. America and India faces common threats of Islamic terrorism. Since 9-11, the US-Indian partnership has become critically important to defeat radical Muslims from Yemen to Mumbai. Also, it is necessary to incorporate India into the global economy. Globalization brings costs and benefits, and both India and the United States can overcome these problems by joint efforts.
On the other hand, while Indian participation in building a new world order will be an advantage to American global strategy, Kissinger warns not to use India as America’s diplomatic card against China and other actors. He argues that neither India nor China seeks pre-eminence in Eurasian heartland, despite conflicts over Tibet. According to Kissinger, both the United States and India need constructive relationship with China, and it does not serve America’s interest to use India to contain China.
The most vital issue is the nuclear deal. Kissinger insists that nuclear progress in India is irreversible, but it is necessary to make Indian commitment to non-proliferation explicit. R. Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary of State, says almost the same thing in the lecture at the Heritage Foundation.
So far as pro-con debates on US-Indian deals are concerned, the most serious issue is nuclear non-proliferation. Should the United States trust India, without considering effects on current non-proliferation regime?
Pro-Indian opinion leaders regard India as a trustworthy democracy. In their view, a feasible agreement outside present NPT will be helpful foe nuclear arms control.
Robert Kagan, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says that a powerful and prosperous democracy like India is a good counterbalance against China and Russia. Most importantly, he endorses US double standard policy against Iran and India, because Iran takes brinkmanship diplomacy while India does not. While he recognizes current NPT regime remains a useful tool to stop nuclear proliferation, he insists that realistic deals with India are inevitable as this regime is collapsing.
His viewpoints are widely shared among neoconservatives and Bush administration supporters. Helle Dale, Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation, goes on to say that arguments against India sound rather like the District of Columbia's gun laws, which leave handguns in the hands of the criminals, but deny honest citizens the right to own one.
IAEA welcomes this deal as well. Considering icy relations between American conservatives and UN bureaucrats, it is a surprise. Though India refuses to sign NPT, Director General Mohammed El Baradei supports the deal to bring India closer as an important partner in the non-proliferation regime while satisfying its growing energy needs. It is noteworthy that R. Nicholas Burns told Reuters that this unique deal with India would not be repeated with other countries such as neighbor and rival Pakistan, because India has not proliferated for 30 years. He says this distinguishes India from major proliferators like North Korea.
Still, some opinion leaders worry that the Bush administration gave too much benefits to India without sufficient return. According to Joseph Cirincione, Director of Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, President Bush permitted the Indian authority to decide which reactors would be exempted from inspection. This does not satisfy the normal and full-scope inspections originally sought. Moreover, he warns that a double standard will undermine US effort against Iran.
Even Republican leaders including Senator Richard Lugar, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rep. Henry Hyde, Chairman of the House International Relations Committee, and Rep. Ed Royce, Chairman of the Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation worry that the deal is too lenient for India, and sacrifice nonproliferation objectives.
As India is buying uranium from Russia before the US-Indian deal comes into effect, opponents’ views are worth being considered.
In face of these pro-con debates, George Perkovich, Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says that nonproliferation rules needs to change flexible enough to get India in. However he worries that the deal is too vague and too fast. The term of “civilian” and “military” must be defined more strictly, he says. Though Perkovich does not necessarily agree to President Bush’s approach, he defends a double standard.
“Iran has been found noncompliant with legal obligations, and is being held to account for them. Also, Iran, unlike India, does not recognize the right of some countries to exist. Iran, unlike India, conducts terrorism...The two examples are very different.”
Finally, let me review Afghanistan and Pakistan just briefly. For the surprise visit to Afghanistan, President Bush canceled the tour to Taj Mahal. Unlike former president Bill Clinton, he did not enjoy tiger safari in India. These facts illustrate how serious the Bush administration is to resolve Afghan issues. On the other hand, the importance of Pakistan to the United States is declining. It is noticeable in Burns’ lecture at the Heritage Foundation. He mentions too much on India, and too little on Pakistan.
Fundamentally, the Bush administration is right to incorporate India into the global economy, and establish strategic partnership with this powerful English-speaking democracy. But remember that India acts on its own. America should not trust this country blindly. Former senator Sam Nunn who currently chairs the Nuclear Threat Initiative raises serious concern that the deal will damage US interest without imposing sufficient obligations to India. Pro-con controversies at the congress will be intensified. Forthcoming debates will be a real landmark in US foreign policy and global nonproliferation.
by Shah Alex
In order to understand the overall view of this issue, let me refer to an article, “Anatomy of Partnership” in the International Herald Tribune by Henry Kissinger. In the article, he welcomes new partnership with this powerful English-speaking democracy and the United States. America and India faces common threats of Islamic terrorism. Since 9-11, the US-Indian partnership has become critically important to defeat radical Muslims from Yemen to Mumbai. Also, it is necessary to incorporate India into the global economy. Globalization brings costs and benefits, and both India and the United States can overcome these problems by joint efforts.
On the other hand, while Indian participation in building a new world order will be an advantage to American global strategy, Kissinger warns not to use India as America’s diplomatic card against China and other actors. He argues that neither India nor China seeks pre-eminence in Eurasian heartland, despite conflicts over Tibet. According to Kissinger, both the United States and India need constructive relationship with China, and it does not serve America’s interest to use India to contain China.
The most vital issue is the nuclear deal. Kissinger insists that nuclear progress in India is irreversible, but it is necessary to make Indian commitment to non-proliferation explicit. R. Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary of State, says almost the same thing in the lecture at the Heritage Foundation.
So far as pro-con debates on US-Indian deals are concerned, the most serious issue is nuclear non-proliferation. Should the United States trust India, without considering effects on current non-proliferation regime?
Pro-Indian opinion leaders regard India as a trustworthy democracy. In their view, a feasible agreement outside present NPT will be helpful foe nuclear arms control.
Robert Kagan, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says that a powerful and prosperous democracy like India is a good counterbalance against China and Russia. Most importantly, he endorses US double standard policy against Iran and India, because Iran takes brinkmanship diplomacy while India does not. While he recognizes current NPT regime remains a useful tool to stop nuclear proliferation, he insists that realistic deals with India are inevitable as this regime is collapsing.
His viewpoints are widely shared among neoconservatives and Bush administration supporters. Helle Dale, Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation, goes on to say that arguments against India sound rather like the District of Columbia's gun laws, which leave handguns in the hands of the criminals, but deny honest citizens the right to own one.
IAEA welcomes this deal as well. Considering icy relations between American conservatives and UN bureaucrats, it is a surprise. Though India refuses to sign NPT, Director General Mohammed El Baradei supports the deal to bring India closer as an important partner in the non-proliferation regime while satisfying its growing energy needs. It is noteworthy that R. Nicholas Burns told Reuters that this unique deal with India would not be repeated with other countries such as neighbor and rival Pakistan, because India has not proliferated for 30 years. He says this distinguishes India from major proliferators like North Korea.
Still, some opinion leaders worry that the Bush administration gave too much benefits to India without sufficient return. According to Joseph Cirincione, Director of Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, President Bush permitted the Indian authority to decide which reactors would be exempted from inspection. This does not satisfy the normal and full-scope inspections originally sought. Moreover, he warns that a double standard will undermine US effort against Iran.
Even Republican leaders including Senator Richard Lugar, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rep. Henry Hyde, Chairman of the House International Relations Committee, and Rep. Ed Royce, Chairman of the Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation worry that the deal is too lenient for India, and sacrifice nonproliferation objectives.
As India is buying uranium from Russia before the US-Indian deal comes into effect, opponents’ views are worth being considered.
In face of these pro-con debates, George Perkovich, Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says that nonproliferation rules needs to change flexible enough to get India in. However he worries that the deal is too vague and too fast. The term of “civilian” and “military” must be defined more strictly, he says. Though Perkovich does not necessarily agree to President Bush’s approach, he defends a double standard.
“Iran has been found noncompliant with legal obligations, and is being held to account for them. Also, Iran, unlike India, does not recognize the right of some countries to exist. Iran, unlike India, conducts terrorism...The two examples are very different.”
Finally, let me review Afghanistan and Pakistan just briefly. For the surprise visit to Afghanistan, President Bush canceled the tour to Taj Mahal. Unlike former president Bill Clinton, he did not enjoy tiger safari in India. These facts illustrate how serious the Bush administration is to resolve Afghan issues. On the other hand, the importance of Pakistan to the United States is declining. It is noticeable in Burns’ lecture at the Heritage Foundation. He mentions too much on India, and too little on Pakistan.
Fundamentally, the Bush administration is right to incorporate India into the global economy, and establish strategic partnership with this powerful English-speaking democracy. But remember that India acts on its own. America should not trust this country blindly. Former senator Sam Nunn who currently chairs the Nuclear Threat Initiative raises serious concern that the deal will damage US interest without imposing sufficient obligations to India. Pro-con controversies at the congress will be intensified. Forthcoming debates will be a real landmark in US foreign policy and global nonproliferation.
by Shah Alex
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
Failing a Democracy: The US-Japan-Taiwan alliance and its implications for conflict with China.
This article is posted by AH.
This has been a banner year for the pro-Taiwan movement and its independence-orientated President Chen Shui-bian. From accelerating business investment, evidenced by the growing number of Taiwanese companies operating in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), to Beijing’s agreement to resume and extend direct flights from Taipei to the mainland during the all important Chinese New Year holidays, Chen has remained at the helm of Taiwan’s hawkish Democratic Progressive Party (DDP). Earlier last year Taipei’s relationship with Beijing appeared to have stabilized to an appeasing level and domestic business leaders touted the benefits of a strong economic relationship with China. Yet although economic relations are strong, there is a categorical rejection by Taiwan’s DDP leaders to rescind their independent ambitions. Clearly, Chen is operating a fairly successful two pronged foreign policy vis-à-vis China, delineated along two distinct lines. On the one hand, by utilizing cross-straits investment opportunities Taiwan is overtly strengthening economic relations with China; while on the other, Chen’s domestic vision for Taiwan’s sovereignty is the catalyst for Taipei’s increasingly assertive secessionist behavior and its pro-independence ideology.
Through the economic lens relations between Taipei and Beijing are largely one-sided, verified by the rapid influx of cross-straits investments now anchoring China as Taiwan’s largest trading partner. This is significant for two reasons: (1) historically, increased economic integration has often paved the way for assuaging relations, and (2) as a result of Taiwanese investment in mainland China, Taipei enjoys a substantial trade surplus and is keen to further strengthen economic growth. While trade and investment may serve as facilitators of stalwart economic ties, underneath the smiles there lies a political and military element to the relationship that will ultimately have to be addressed. Whether Chen is successful in securing Taiwanese independence from China remains to be seen, what is determinable is that it will not be the strengthening of economic trade alone that will dictate the direction the relationship takes.
Contradicting the positive overtones of Taiwan’s economic relationship with China, cross-straits political and military relations remain tense. Despite a trade boom, the fact remains that Beijing has had no constructive sustainable dialogue with the Taiwanese constituency since the rupture of official political ties in 1972. Although Taiwan and China have maintained separate governments and political systems since 1949, for Beijing, having separate governments is not indicative of any allowance or thought to legitimate state partition. It has been one year since Beijing successfully legislated the ‘use of force anti-succession law’ against Taiwan and political relations have soured accordingly. Taipei and Beijing have adopted opposing antagonistic stances which are reflected in Taiwan’s increasingly assertive, pro-independence movement and China’s reactionary political rhetoric and threats of force.
The Taiwan Straits issue specifically impacts Taiwan, China, Japan and the US and is simply not a bi-lateral or localized matter. Further, regional and international institutional organizations serve as impediments constraining any direct military action by China. These organizations include such regional pacts as ASEAN and APEC and internationally, the United Nations (UN). Importantly, due to the fragility of cross-straits relations coupled with region-wide wariness of Beijing’s intentions, China does not enjoy unanimous support in its quest for Taiwanese reunification. At present, Chen’s DDP political objectives are for Taiwan independence and so accordingly, tensions across the straits have heightened with warnings from Beijing and the US calling for Taipei to support the status quo. The fact that China sees Taiwan as rouge province comes as no surprise as their economic and political apparatuses are formulated on opposing foundations, one Democratic, the other Communist. This clash of political and economic cultures plays an increasingly pivotal role in Sino-Taiwanese relations.
The US position in the cross-straights issue is elucidated by articulated longstanding support for Taiwan’s market economy and pluralistic domestic political system. However, Washington’s backing is not predicated on Taiwanese independence. To the contrary, US leaders have consistently upheld the status quo of the three No’s policy; No to Taiwanese independence, no to two China’s (the one China policy), and finally, no to Taiwan’s participation in any international organizations or alliances where members are sovereign states. Additionally, the Taiwanese Relations Act (TRA) in no way alludes to Washington’s support of an independent Taiwan. In its essence, the TRA seeks further multifaceted economic and cultural integration. However, it stops short of calling for increased political or military relations. This policy remains intact today with US President Bush reassuring Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao as recent as 2003 that the US does not support Taiwanese independence and is opposed to unilateral activity across the Taiwan Straits. Whether the US would become militarily engaged with China over the Taiwan issue is something that Washington would rather not have to face. While it is the case that the US does militarily support Taiwan by selling Taipei military equipment, these military acquisitions are largely symbolic against the backdrop of over 700 missiles aimed across the straits at Taiwan.
Although recent domestic political actions taken by Taiwanese President Shui-bian have called Washington’s commitment into question, US policy remains unchanged. Even as Chen advances the DDP’s agenda by abandoning the National Unification Council (NUC) and exploiting power politics by moving Taiwan closer to independence, the US continues to support the one-China policy.
Tokyo’s view of Taiwan seems to reflect soft support for Taiwan’s DDP party which enjoys a favorable relationship with Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). However, this support is militarily flimsy and politically attenuated at best. With China as Japan’s largest trading partner, Beijing increasingly yields considerable influence in shaping Tokyo’s perception of Taiwan. Eager to benefit economically from the PRC’s rise to world superpower, Japan is not willing to sacrifice relations with Beijing over the Taiwan issue. Lack of military capacity notwithstanding, Japan’s Article 9 effectively prevents any Japanese military action should a conflict ensue. In truth, Japan remains trapped between the desire for economic trade with China and Tokyo’s desire to uphold a fellow Asian democracy, one that looks to Japan for cultural and political influence. Obviously Tokyo’s true ability lies not in military power but in soft power, encouraging cultural and economic ties while politically placating to Beijing on the one-China principle and although the US and Japan signed the joint declaration for the easing of tensions across the Taiwan Straits in 2005, any military support will come from the US and not Japan.
Finally, as this issue is still evolving, it is impossible to predict any outcome. Though, it behoves that given the economic prosperity of Asia-Pacific, any disruption impeding further economic development must be avoided. Certainly there are domestic factors influencing Chen’s push for independence such as his slumping popularity and his desire to secure his political legacy. Chen has stated that he will make constitutional reform an issue in future elections. Any reform will facilitate the government’s ability to move towards full independence. Chen is due to step down in 2008, should Taiwan’s strategic imbalance with, and geopolitical bulling by China continue, Taipei’s next leaders will forced to weigh the merits of secession against maintaining the status quo. This will be an important flash-point to watch and will likely be profound in its ultimate impact on both regional and international relations.
by AH
This has been a banner year for the pro-Taiwan movement and its independence-orientated President Chen Shui-bian. From accelerating business investment, evidenced by the growing number of Taiwanese companies operating in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), to Beijing’s agreement to resume and extend direct flights from Taipei to the mainland during the all important Chinese New Year holidays, Chen has remained at the helm of Taiwan’s hawkish Democratic Progressive Party (DDP). Earlier last year Taipei’s relationship with Beijing appeared to have stabilized to an appeasing level and domestic business leaders touted the benefits of a strong economic relationship with China. Yet although economic relations are strong, there is a categorical rejection by Taiwan’s DDP leaders to rescind their independent ambitions. Clearly, Chen is operating a fairly successful two pronged foreign policy vis-à-vis China, delineated along two distinct lines. On the one hand, by utilizing cross-straits investment opportunities Taiwan is overtly strengthening economic relations with China; while on the other, Chen’s domestic vision for Taiwan’s sovereignty is the catalyst for Taipei’s increasingly assertive secessionist behavior and its pro-independence ideology.
Through the economic lens relations between Taipei and Beijing are largely one-sided, verified by the rapid influx of cross-straits investments now anchoring China as Taiwan’s largest trading partner. This is significant for two reasons: (1) historically, increased economic integration has often paved the way for assuaging relations, and (2) as a result of Taiwanese investment in mainland China, Taipei enjoys a substantial trade surplus and is keen to further strengthen economic growth. While trade and investment may serve as facilitators of stalwart economic ties, underneath the smiles there lies a political and military element to the relationship that will ultimately have to be addressed. Whether Chen is successful in securing Taiwanese independence from China remains to be seen, what is determinable is that it will not be the strengthening of economic trade alone that will dictate the direction the relationship takes.
Contradicting the positive overtones of Taiwan’s economic relationship with China, cross-straits political and military relations remain tense. Despite a trade boom, the fact remains that Beijing has had no constructive sustainable dialogue with the Taiwanese constituency since the rupture of official political ties in 1972. Although Taiwan and China have maintained separate governments and political systems since 1949, for Beijing, having separate governments is not indicative of any allowance or thought to legitimate state partition. It has been one year since Beijing successfully legislated the ‘use of force anti-succession law’ against Taiwan and political relations have soured accordingly. Taipei and Beijing have adopted opposing antagonistic stances which are reflected in Taiwan’s increasingly assertive, pro-independence movement and China’s reactionary political rhetoric and threats of force.
The Taiwan Straits issue specifically impacts Taiwan, China, Japan and the US and is simply not a bi-lateral or localized matter. Further, regional and international institutional organizations serve as impediments constraining any direct military action by China. These organizations include such regional pacts as ASEAN and APEC and internationally, the United Nations (UN). Importantly, due to the fragility of cross-straits relations coupled with region-wide wariness of Beijing’s intentions, China does not enjoy unanimous support in its quest for Taiwanese reunification. At present, Chen’s DDP political objectives are for Taiwan independence and so accordingly, tensions across the straits have heightened with warnings from Beijing and the US calling for Taipei to support the status quo. The fact that China sees Taiwan as rouge province comes as no surprise as their economic and political apparatuses are formulated on opposing foundations, one Democratic, the other Communist. This clash of political and economic cultures plays an increasingly pivotal role in Sino-Taiwanese relations.
The US position in the cross-straights issue is elucidated by articulated longstanding support for Taiwan’s market economy and pluralistic domestic political system. However, Washington’s backing is not predicated on Taiwanese independence. To the contrary, US leaders have consistently upheld the status quo of the three No’s policy; No to Taiwanese independence, no to two China’s (the one China policy), and finally, no to Taiwan’s participation in any international organizations or alliances where members are sovereign states. Additionally, the Taiwanese Relations Act (TRA) in no way alludes to Washington’s support of an independent Taiwan. In its essence, the TRA seeks further multifaceted economic and cultural integration. However, it stops short of calling for increased political or military relations. This policy remains intact today with US President Bush reassuring Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao as recent as 2003 that the US does not support Taiwanese independence and is opposed to unilateral activity across the Taiwan Straits. Whether the US would become militarily engaged with China over the Taiwan issue is something that Washington would rather not have to face. While it is the case that the US does militarily support Taiwan by selling Taipei military equipment, these military acquisitions are largely symbolic against the backdrop of over 700 missiles aimed across the straits at Taiwan.
Although recent domestic political actions taken by Taiwanese President Shui-bian have called Washington’s commitment into question, US policy remains unchanged. Even as Chen advances the DDP’s agenda by abandoning the National Unification Council (NUC) and exploiting power politics by moving Taiwan closer to independence, the US continues to support the one-China policy.
Tokyo’s view of Taiwan seems to reflect soft support for Taiwan’s DDP party which enjoys a favorable relationship with Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). However, this support is militarily flimsy and politically attenuated at best. With China as Japan’s largest trading partner, Beijing increasingly yields considerable influence in shaping Tokyo’s perception of Taiwan. Eager to benefit economically from the PRC’s rise to world superpower, Japan is not willing to sacrifice relations with Beijing over the Taiwan issue. Lack of military capacity notwithstanding, Japan’s Article 9 effectively prevents any Japanese military action should a conflict ensue. In truth, Japan remains trapped between the desire for economic trade with China and Tokyo’s desire to uphold a fellow Asian democracy, one that looks to Japan for cultural and political influence. Obviously Tokyo’s true ability lies not in military power but in soft power, encouraging cultural and economic ties while politically placating to Beijing on the one-China principle and although the US and Japan signed the joint declaration for the easing of tensions across the Taiwan Straits in 2005, any military support will come from the US and not Japan.
Finally, as this issue is still evolving, it is impossible to predict any outcome. Though, it behoves that given the economic prosperity of Asia-Pacific, any disruption impeding further economic development must be avoided. Certainly there are domestic factors influencing Chen’s push for independence such as his slumping popularity and his desire to secure his political legacy. Chen has stated that he will make constitutional reform an issue in future elections. Any reform will facilitate the government’s ability to move towards full independence. Chen is due to step down in 2008, should Taiwan’s strategic imbalance with, and geopolitical bulling by China continue, Taipei’s next leaders will forced to weigh the merits of secession against maintaining the status quo. This will be an important flash-point to watch and will likely be profound in its ultimate impact on both regional and international relations.
by AH
Friday, March 24, 2006
Carnival on US-German Relations
The Atlantic Review hosts the Carnival on US-German Relations on March 25. Bloggers submit their posts on US politics and transatlantic relations. Last time, I was the only participant outside the Atlantic area. More bloggers will attend the carnival this time.
Staunch transatlantic alliance is the key to world peace and prosperity. Reading blog posts submitted to this carnival, you would understand political and economic trends on both sides of the Atlantic.
I have submitted my post “Iran Review: America, Europe, and Japan at Crossroads to Deal With Nuclear Theocracy” to the carnival. I explore policy options against Iran. Nonetheless importantly, America and Europe are overcoming transatlantic rifts since the Iraq War. On the other hand, Japan is too dimwitted, because it does not pay sufficient attention to improving US-European relations on Iran.
Don’t miss this carnival, and learn more about things between America and Europe.
by Shah Alex
Staunch transatlantic alliance is the key to world peace and prosperity. Reading blog posts submitted to this carnival, you would understand political and economic trends on both sides of the Atlantic.
I have submitted my post “Iran Review: America, Europe, and Japan at Crossroads to Deal With Nuclear Theocracy” to the carnival. I explore policy options against Iran. Nonetheless importantly, America and Europe are overcoming transatlantic rifts since the Iraq War. On the other hand, Japan is too dimwitted, because it does not pay sufficient attention to improving US-European relations on Iran.
Don’t miss this carnival, and learn more about things between America and Europe.
by Shah Alex
Thursday, March 16, 2006
Iran Review: Students Rally at Harvard
I received an e-mail from the Iran Freedom Concert planning committee. Please read the following message, and join the activity against Shiite theocracy.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Harvard Students Hold "Iran Freedom Concert" in Solidarity with Iranian Student Movement for Democracy and Civil Rights
CAMBRIDGE – On Saturday, March 18, Harvard University will host the Iran Freedom Concert, a rally organized by Harvard students to support their counterparts in Iran. Prominent Iranian student leader Akbar Atri and Harvard's Undergraduate Council president John Haddock will address the crowd.
"As tensions rise over nuclear issues, our diverse student coalition wants to spotlight the human side of the Iran crisis," said co-organizer Adam Scheuer, a senior and editor at the Harvard Middle East Review.
"Iranian students are denied basic rights Americans take advantage of every day. But there is a brave student movement in Iran working for change, and we need to support them." Widespread student protests in Iran have broken out in recent years, despite a brutal crackdown by the regime's security forces.
The concert, which begins at 9 p.m. at Leverett House, features leading campus musicians and speakers from campus groups exposing repression in Iran. Nine organizations are co-sponsoring, including an unusual alliance of campus Democrats and Republicans.
"The coalition doesn't take a stand on policy debates like foreign intervention," explained freshman co-organizer Alex McLeese. "But we agree that the fundamental rights of Iranians cannot be held hostage to diplomatic maneuverings over Iran's nuclear program.
"The Iran Freedom Concert takes place just before the traditional Persian new year of Norouz – reflecting the students' hope for a new day for freedom in Iran."Iranian students are arrested for what they write on their blogs and have to take their exams in handcuffs," noted freshman co-organizer Nick Manske. "In fact, the essential elements of this concert are illegal in Iran: live singing, mixed dancing, and discussing social messages. Not to mention the restrictions on women, minorities, and journalists."
That message is being echoed on campuses across the country, with simultaneous rallies planned at Georgetown, UPenn, Duke, and other schools. Prominent Iranian dissidents, as well as the American Islamic Congress, are sending statements of support.
"This is a critical moment for Iran," Scheuer said. "Iranian activists need to know that American students are ready to help them hold the Iranian regime accountable. We want to help our counterparts in Iran seize the moment and advance their civil rights movement."
For more information, see http://www.iranfreedomconcert.com/ or call617.661.0053.
by Shah Alex
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Harvard Students Hold "Iran Freedom Concert" in Solidarity with Iranian Student Movement for Democracy and Civil Rights
CAMBRIDGE – On Saturday, March 18, Harvard University will host the Iran Freedom Concert, a rally organized by Harvard students to support their counterparts in Iran. Prominent Iranian student leader Akbar Atri and Harvard's Undergraduate Council president John Haddock will address the crowd.
"As tensions rise over nuclear issues, our diverse student coalition wants to spotlight the human side of the Iran crisis," said co-organizer Adam Scheuer, a senior and editor at the Harvard Middle East Review.
"Iranian students are denied basic rights Americans take advantage of every day. But there is a brave student movement in Iran working for change, and we need to support them." Widespread student protests in Iran have broken out in recent years, despite a brutal crackdown by the regime's security forces.
The concert, which begins at 9 p.m. at Leverett House, features leading campus musicians and speakers from campus groups exposing repression in Iran. Nine organizations are co-sponsoring, including an unusual alliance of campus Democrats and Republicans.
"The coalition doesn't take a stand on policy debates like foreign intervention," explained freshman co-organizer Alex McLeese. "But we agree that the fundamental rights of Iranians cannot be held hostage to diplomatic maneuverings over Iran's nuclear program.
"The Iran Freedom Concert takes place just before the traditional Persian new year of Norouz – reflecting the students' hope for a new day for freedom in Iran."Iranian students are arrested for what they write on their blogs and have to take their exams in handcuffs," noted freshman co-organizer Nick Manske. "In fact, the essential elements of this concert are illegal in Iran: live singing, mixed dancing, and discussing social messages. Not to mention the restrictions on women, minorities, and journalists."
That message is being echoed on campuses across the country, with simultaneous rallies planned at Georgetown, UPenn, Duke, and other schools. Prominent Iranian dissidents, as well as the American Islamic Congress, are sending statements of support.
"This is a critical moment for Iran," Scheuer said. "Iranian activists need to know that American students are ready to help them hold the Iranian regime accountable. We want to help our counterparts in Iran seize the moment and advance their civil rights movement."
For more information, see http://www.iranfreedomconcert.com/ or call617.661.0053.
by Shah Alex
Monday, March 6, 2006
Iran Review: America, Europe, and Japan at Crossroads to Deal With Nuclear Theocracy
It is my pleasure to submit the first issue of “The Iran Review” to the German-American blog carnival. As mentioned in the previous notice, this is a new project on this blog.
In this post, I am going to explore policy gaps and cooperation among the United States, EU 3, and Japan. It is worth to note that America and Europe are acting closer on Iran, though they split on Iraq. While the transatlantic rift is being repaired, Japan does not articulate its stance on Iran. Will this disturb the common front of the Western alliance?
I will discuss policy options, including military actions, diplomatic negotiations, and sanctions. It is necessary to talk of Western assistance to Iranian civil resistance when I discuss this issue. Nonetheless importantly, we need to understand the nature of current theocracy in Iran.
Let me begin with the nature of Iranian theocracy. Reza Pahlavi, former crown prince of Iran, argues that the current regime in Iran will not abandon their ambition for nuclear power status. He says that this regime pursues to export Islamic revolution abroad, and aggression and confrontation against the global community is inevitable. In an interview with Sky TV of Italy, Pahlavi denounces that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s anti-Semitism ruins Persian tradition of ethnic tolerance since Cyrus the Great who liberated the Jewish from Babylonian oppression. Furthermore, he says that the current regime does not represent Iranian public.
Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, agrees with Reza Pahlavi. In an AEI policy leaflet, entitled “Iran Means What It Says”, he points out that Iran has the second largest Jewish population in the Middle East after Israel. More interestingly, Rubin mentions that many Iranians express pride that Israeli president Moshe Katsav was born in Iran. Apparently, anti-Israel policy by Ahmadinejad does not win a nationwide support from Iranian people.
Islamic extremism has become rampant since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Since then, Iran has been sponsoring terrorist organizations, like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and so forth. A regime like this is exploring nuclear development. This is a serious threat to the global community.
In order to curb Iranian threat, it is necessary to think of policy options. Currently, military strike, diplomatic negotiation, and punitive sanction are considered. The West has to support Iranian civic movements for democracy, in parallel with those measures. Among those, military attack is unlikely. Iranian theocrats will claim holy war against Western invasion, Reza Pahlavi says in a BBC interview on February 6. Also, Flynt L. Leverett, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution argues as the following.
“The United States (or Israel) could strike militarily at Iran's nuclear installations. But these are spread across Iran, and planners may not know all of the targets that would need to be hit. Moreover, a strike could prove counterproductive by hardening Iranian resolve to acquire a nuclear weapons capacity.”
Therefore, two options remain: either to continue talks or to impose sanctions. Can the global community talk with mullahs? Reza Pahlavi told Fox News that diplomacy does not work for a fascist regime, because they need confrontations against outside world in order to survive (January 7). To examine his comment, let me review some articles. As witnessed in recent failure in the negotiation with Russia, why is Iran so adamant?
According to Michael A. Ledeen, Freedom Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Iran acts based on its assessment of the West’s strength and weakness (“A Mullah’s-Eye View of the World”, National Review Online, February 17). They are not afraid of isolation from the world, because they feel that both the US and Israel face domestic divide to stand tough against Iran. Also, Michael Rubin argues in an AEI publication that as long as Iran retains extremist ideology, more diplomacy will give Iranian theocrats time to achieve its nuclear goal.
Things are going on as Rubin says. Prior to the Russo-Iranian talk, Reza Pahlavi appeared in C-Span to warn that mullahs use this negotiation as a delay tactic. Actually, the negotiation ended in failure.
If diplomacy does not work, punitive sanctions remain as the final option. Just as Reza Pahlavi says, this must be smart, not sanctions for sanctions. How to make it effective, while posing minimum damage to the Iranian public?
I saw an interesting file in an e-news from the Regime Change Iran. According to the file, Senator Rick Santorum proposed the following measures at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 2.
1) A travel ban on Iran's leaders;
2) A ban on international flights by Iran Air;
3) A ban on receiving cargo carried on Iranian government-owned ships; and
4) Aggressive action to see that government leaders in Iran responsible for human rights abuses and executions are brought to trial.
George Perkovich, Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, advised not to speak about sanctions prematurely and too hastily at the testimony before the House Armed Services Committee. When sanctions are imposed, all important investors and traders must be involved, he says. At the committee, he testified that Britain and France had been examining their sanction models.
Sanctions must hurt the regime, not the Iranian public. This is not only because of humanitarianism. Iranian people can work with the West to topple extremist mullahs. According to a policy brief by Chris Foster and James Owen at the Foreign Policy Centre in Britain, Iranians youth are more pro-American than those in Arab neighbors, and getting increasingly frustrated with brutal police and poor economy. Michael Rubin points out that only 10 % of people around Tehran believe in Ahmadinejad’s political vision. He argues that the United States and Europe could make Iran a potential anchor democracy in the Middle East, if they succeeded in empowering Iranian citizens.
As the latest Russo-Iranian negotiation was unsuccessful, it has become increasingly important for the Western alliance to explore sanctions.
Finally, I would like to mention the repair of transatlantic alliance on Iran. When German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Washington last time, people realized how serious Euro-American gap is on Iraq. However, “thanks” to adamant Ahmadinejad, the transatlantic bond is cementing again. Jim Hoagland, Columnist at the Washington Post, and Reuel Marc Gerecht, Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, welcomes this trend. A solidified unity of the Western alliance is essential to defeat mullahs’ ambition.
While America and Europe are working closely, Japan has not shown its strategy on Iran. Currently, Japan is engaged in developing a large-scale oil field in Azagaden, southwestern Iran. It is time to reconsider this project. Japan should understand its role as a key member of the Western alliance. Moreover, Japan needs to take implicit messages from President Bush seriously. The President requested India to stop the pipeline project when he offered technological assistance to civil use of nuclear energy. Also, at State of the Union Address this year, the President warned people of excessive dependence on Middle East oil.
Things have become increasingly critical, and staunch Western unity is required. America and Europe move closer together. Japan must not hesitate to join this transatlantic endeavor, if it is seriously pursuing for a leading position to manage the globe.
In this post, I am going to explore policy gaps and cooperation among the United States, EU 3, and Japan. It is worth to note that America and Europe are acting closer on Iran, though they split on Iraq. While the transatlantic rift is being repaired, Japan does not articulate its stance on Iran. Will this disturb the common front of the Western alliance?
I will discuss policy options, including military actions, diplomatic negotiations, and sanctions. It is necessary to talk of Western assistance to Iranian civil resistance when I discuss this issue. Nonetheless importantly, we need to understand the nature of current theocracy in Iran.
Let me begin with the nature of Iranian theocracy. Reza Pahlavi, former crown prince of Iran, argues that the current regime in Iran will not abandon their ambition for nuclear power status. He says that this regime pursues to export Islamic revolution abroad, and aggression and confrontation against the global community is inevitable. In an interview with Sky TV of Italy, Pahlavi denounces that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s anti-Semitism ruins Persian tradition of ethnic tolerance since Cyrus the Great who liberated the Jewish from Babylonian oppression. Furthermore, he says that the current regime does not represent Iranian public.
Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, agrees with Reza Pahlavi. In an AEI policy leaflet, entitled “Iran Means What It Says”, he points out that Iran has the second largest Jewish population in the Middle East after Israel. More interestingly, Rubin mentions that many Iranians express pride that Israeli president Moshe Katsav was born in Iran. Apparently, anti-Israel policy by Ahmadinejad does not win a nationwide support from Iranian people.
Islamic extremism has become rampant since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Since then, Iran has been sponsoring terrorist organizations, like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and so forth. A regime like this is exploring nuclear development. This is a serious threat to the global community.
In order to curb Iranian threat, it is necessary to think of policy options. Currently, military strike, diplomatic negotiation, and punitive sanction are considered. The West has to support Iranian civic movements for democracy, in parallel with those measures. Among those, military attack is unlikely. Iranian theocrats will claim holy war against Western invasion, Reza Pahlavi says in a BBC interview on February 6. Also, Flynt L. Leverett, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution argues as the following.
“The United States (or Israel) could strike militarily at Iran's nuclear installations. But these are spread across Iran, and planners may not know all of the targets that would need to be hit. Moreover, a strike could prove counterproductive by hardening Iranian resolve to acquire a nuclear weapons capacity.”
Therefore, two options remain: either to continue talks or to impose sanctions. Can the global community talk with mullahs? Reza Pahlavi told Fox News that diplomacy does not work for a fascist regime, because they need confrontations against outside world in order to survive (January 7). To examine his comment, let me review some articles. As witnessed in recent failure in the negotiation with Russia, why is Iran so adamant?
According to Michael A. Ledeen, Freedom Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Iran acts based on its assessment of the West’s strength and weakness (“A Mullah’s-Eye View of the World”, National Review Online, February 17). They are not afraid of isolation from the world, because they feel that both the US and Israel face domestic divide to stand tough against Iran. Also, Michael Rubin argues in an AEI publication that as long as Iran retains extremist ideology, more diplomacy will give Iranian theocrats time to achieve its nuclear goal.
Things are going on as Rubin says. Prior to the Russo-Iranian talk, Reza Pahlavi appeared in C-Span to warn that mullahs use this negotiation as a delay tactic. Actually, the negotiation ended in failure.
If diplomacy does not work, punitive sanctions remain as the final option. Just as Reza Pahlavi says, this must be smart, not sanctions for sanctions. How to make it effective, while posing minimum damage to the Iranian public?
I saw an interesting file in an e-news from the Regime Change Iran. According to the file, Senator Rick Santorum proposed the following measures at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 2.
1) A travel ban on Iran's leaders;
2) A ban on international flights by Iran Air;
3) A ban on receiving cargo carried on Iranian government-owned ships; and
4) Aggressive action to see that government leaders in Iran responsible for human rights abuses and executions are brought to trial.
George Perkovich, Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, advised not to speak about sanctions prematurely and too hastily at the testimony before the House Armed Services Committee. When sanctions are imposed, all important investors and traders must be involved, he says. At the committee, he testified that Britain and France had been examining their sanction models.
Sanctions must hurt the regime, not the Iranian public. This is not only because of humanitarianism. Iranian people can work with the West to topple extremist mullahs. According to a policy brief by Chris Foster and James Owen at the Foreign Policy Centre in Britain, Iranians youth are more pro-American than those in Arab neighbors, and getting increasingly frustrated with brutal police and poor economy. Michael Rubin points out that only 10 % of people around Tehran believe in Ahmadinejad’s political vision. He argues that the United States and Europe could make Iran a potential anchor democracy in the Middle East, if they succeeded in empowering Iranian citizens.
As the latest Russo-Iranian negotiation was unsuccessful, it has become increasingly important for the Western alliance to explore sanctions.
Finally, I would like to mention the repair of transatlantic alliance on Iran. When German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Washington last time, people realized how serious Euro-American gap is on Iraq. However, “thanks” to adamant Ahmadinejad, the transatlantic bond is cementing again. Jim Hoagland, Columnist at the Washington Post, and Reuel Marc Gerecht, Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, welcomes this trend. A solidified unity of the Western alliance is essential to defeat mullahs’ ambition.
While America and Europe are working closely, Japan has not shown its strategy on Iran. Currently, Japan is engaged in developing a large-scale oil field in Azagaden, southwestern Iran. It is time to reconsider this project. Japan should understand its role as a key member of the Western alliance. Moreover, Japan needs to take implicit messages from President Bush seriously. The President requested India to stop the pipeline project when he offered technological assistance to civil use of nuclear energy. Also, at State of the Union Address this year, the President warned people of excessive dependence on Middle East oil.
Things have become increasingly critical, and staunch Western unity is required. America and Europe move closer together. Japan must not hesitate to join this transatlantic endeavor, if it is seriously pursuing for a leading position to manage the globe.
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